Board Thread:TV Show Discussion/@comment-1031724-20170916044647/@comment-28895263-20170919034646

That's a thorough analysis, KillRoy, and very useful in understanding Westeros' own Professor Moriarty. It's important enough, and complicated enough, to merit an easier-to-follow infographic of some kind. (Fishbone diagram?)

Some minor comments:

Cersei had been trying to get Robert to drink himself to death long before Ned confronted her. Yes, Jon Arryn was getting close to understanding Joffrey's parentage, but Littlefinger wanted that reveal to happen only when he was better positioned to take power, himself.

Olenna wanted Joffrey dead to protect Margary, and to elevate a more compliant Tommen. She probably approached Littlefinger, rather than the other way around.

We don't see much, if any, dialog between them, but there's unstated backstory that implies a relationship. Go back to Season 2: Littlefinger went to Highgarden to persuade the Tyrells to support the Crown during the Battle of the Blackwater. He promised Olenna that her granddaughter would be queen, in return. We can imagine enough mutual respect, (if not trust) for Olenna to broach the topic of ending Joffrey's reign early.

We, and Littlefinger, can safely assume that Cersei would blame Tyrion, and look no further for a culprit.

You've also identified at least one cusp where Littlefinger's two life goals (the Iron Throne, and Catelyn Tully) were in conflict. To keep Joffrey's parentage quiet until he was ready, he should have steered Ned away from that line of investigation. But that was the easiest way to remove him as an obstacle to Catelyn. Thus demonstrating that Littlefinger, like most men, do their thinking in two different places. :-)